Blog Entry

Theoretical MLB System Wagers Experiment

Posted on: May 20, 2010 10:59 pm
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Baseball tips:

When there is a stud pitcher going against a nobdoy pitcher, and the line is smaller than usual go with the nobody pitcher at + the juice or the run line. EG: Gallardo vs the cards with Fernandez starting? Brewers were only -142 and got creamed 6-0. This one applies more often than any other especially when the small stud fave is on the road.


When a team that shouldn't be favored is, then usually they might not be getting their due respect and will win by a substancially larger margin. Eg. Tigers @ Oakland and Detroit started a small fave, then went down to almost even money. They won in convincing fashion 5 to 3.

When a bad team is a favorite, then there certainly is a reason for that and they should win due to the fact that they normally are dogs and the bookies know something. Eg: Baltimore Orioles were actually -125 and whomped on the Indians. I know its the Indians, but Baltimore is rarely a fave was my point.

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Category: MLB
Comments

Since: Sep 4, 2008
Posted on: August 17, 2010 11:35 am
 

Theoretical MLB System Wagers Experiment

Hey Joe, I stumbled onto this and this is a great idea you have going here. Looks like most of these plays are based on "contrary" thinking, where you are capping the lines as much as capping the teams. I have done some of this myself but laying it all out like this is a smart idea. I'd be interested if you've tracked any of these patterns and what your results were. Anyway great work here and GOOD LUCK to you.



Since: Oct 20, 2008
Posted on: July 16, 2010 10:24 pm
 

Theoretical MLB System Wagers Experiment

Pay attention to the juice on the underdog. If they are paying a substancial amount go the other way and bet the favorite. Eg: The Cardinals were about -129 almost -130 and the Dodgers were +122. That is a bit too close to the same juice payout going the other way on an underdog, and paying just a little too much. The Cardinals whooped them. Usually the dog pays alot less than the favorite juice going in the other direction. It can work the same way when say the Dodgers were only +110, then they have a great shot of pulling off the upset.



Since: Oct 20, 2008
Posted on: July 16, 2010 10:08 pm
 

Theoretical MLB System Wagers Experiment

When there is a relatively medium sized road favorite against a bad team who is at home with their ace on the mound, take the bad home team with the ace. Eg: Tigers -143 @ Cleveland with Westbrook on the bump. Indians creamed them.



Since: Oct 20, 2008
Posted on: May 22, 2010 9:42 pm
 

Theoretical MLB System Wagers Experiment

Try making sets of picks. 1st, 2nd, and 3rd and throw out the second set...use the first or third. GL



Since: Oct 20, 2008
Posted on: May 22, 2010 9:14 pm
 

Theoretical MLB System Wagers Experiment

Another perfect example, Volstad vs Floyd interleague play and both pitchers have been getting rocked all year, yet the total sat at only 8.5? Weird as that was, the final score fell UNDER and the result was 4 to 1 White Sox. The UNDER was the play to follow in accordance with this system.



Since: Oct 20, 2008
Posted on: May 21, 2010 11:03 pm
 

Theoretical MLB System Wagers Experiment

Whenever a sub-par team or even a bad team is a slightly BIG favorite eg: Nationals, Royals etc...they never seem to come through. Like they arent used to being that big of a favorite and it gets in their head or something. Bet the other team. Eg: Nationals were -160 vs Baltimore and the Orioles won big time.



Since: Oct 20, 2008
Posted on: May 21, 2010 7:15 pm
 

Theoretical MLB System Wagers Experiment

Always take into consideration, the away team runline +1.5 when you feel strongly, or you are nervous about a team coming back to win in the 9th. As long as its not a walk off, you will win as once the winning run crosses the plate, the next guy stops and you win by half a run. This also comes into play with over unders as this isnt something to base your bet on, only something to keep in mind. Walkoffs can hurt or help, but as an away team dog it might cost you more but taking that plus 1.5 can save you a parlay, so try to strongly consider this factor.



Since: Oct 20, 2008
Posted on: May 21, 2010 3:22 pm
 

Theoretical MLB System Wagers Experiment

Some games require you to look at the following: Trends, statistics, last 10 games, division records, pitching match ups, righties vs lefties history, bullpens, road home records, injuries, consensus plays, etc etc...

BUT SOME GAMES DO NOT NEED TO BE LOOKED TOO FAR INTO AT ALL, YOU CAN HURT YOURSELF BY OVER-ANALYZING A GAME, THE TRICK IS TO DECIDE WHICH GAMES REQUIRE LITTLE RESEARCH AND WHICH ONES DEEM IT NECESSARY.



Since: Oct 20, 2008
Posted on: May 21, 2010 3:17 pm
 

Theoretical MLB System Wagers Experiment

Anytime 2 pitchers have a combined ERA that's around 2 points lower or higher than the posted total go the other direction. For example say Josh Johnson is posting a 3.5 ERA vs Ryan Dempster posting a 3.5 ERA and the total posted for runs is 9, you bet the over as the bookies know something you don't and set the total alot higher than the two pitchers average runs would indicate. Same thing in the other direction if the posted total was around 6 you would go under as this is way lower than their track records suggest. This one can be a lil confusing but read the lines and decide if the total is alot higher or lower than the numbers suggest. this one is not set in stone and should be applied on a case to case basis per game.



Since: Oct 20, 2008
Posted on: May 21, 2010 3:02 pm
 

Theoretical MLB System Wagers Experiment

Here is another one that I have been following.
When a number 1 starter loses and then the number 2 starter of a team that is over .500 last ten games comes in the following game, he is acting as a stopper. Wager on the number 2 starter after a number 1 gets beat. Eg: Haren lost to ATL and Edwin Jackson came in the next day vs FL and won. 


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